It's been an ugly four years with rampant unemployment, the pandemic, and the country on the brink of civil war. It would have been a close race without the pandemic, but once the pandemic hit, most so-called experts and political prognosticators predicted doom for Donald Trump in his re-election bid against former Vice President Joe Biden. President Trump is hoping to avoid the curse of a single term presidency due to an incumbent loss that includes him with George W. Bush and Jimmy Carter, however as Election Day approaches, his odds continue to shrink as his rhetoric gets crazier and crazier at rallies and on Twitter.
Currently on PredictIt, Joe Biden is trading at 67 cents, while Donald Trump is 39 cents.
Using Real Clear Politics and their RCP Betting Average index, Biden is 63.4 vs Trump's 36.
According to PaddyPower, Joe Biden is 2/5 odds to win the election and Trump is 15/8 odds to win his reelection bid. In American money line terms, that is -250 or you have to lay $250 to win $100. In Euro decimal terms, Biden is 1.4. He has an implied probability of 71.4% to win.
Trump at 15/8 odds is +188 on the money line or 2.88 in decimal odds conversion. He has an implied probability of 34.8% to win.
In 2016, Donald Trump trailed Hillary Clinton in the polls but pulled off the upset and surprise when he won several swing states including Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania. Trump secured 306 electoral votes, or 36 more than needed to secure office. Clinton secured only 202 electoral votes by winning a handful of big states such as California, New York, and Illinois.
In 2020, things have gotten so bad for Trump that both Texas and Florida could fall. Texas seems like a long shot, but there's 38 electoral votes at stake. Florida's 29 electoral votes is a lynchpin for Trump. If he loses Florida, he'll end up losing Pennsylvania and other key swing states in the Midwest like Ohio, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa. Heck, even Nebraska is in play.
The key swing states to pay attention to in 2020 will be Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes), Ohio (18), Michigan (16), and Wisconsin (10). It's sorta crazy that GOP holdouts like Arizona (11), Georgia (16), Florida (29), Texas (38), Iowa (6), and Nebraska (5) are in play.
2020 US Presidential Election Odds
- Joe Biden (D) 2/5 or 1.4
- Donald Trump (R) 15/8 or 2.88
Mike Matusow has a large wager and prop bet on Trump and he's getting odds.
There's also a scenario in which Democrats sweep all the houses and score a trifecta with Joe Biden winning the President and both the House of Representatives and Senate having a blue majority. If the Dems can flip the Senate, there will be a huge balance of power and they could regain control of the Supreme Court. For now, it's a close race in the Senate with 35 seats up for grabs and 7 of which could determine the fate of America.
The key senate races are in Maine, North Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Iowa, Montana, and a special election in Georgia.